Sparta & Co Kurucu Orta\u011f\u0131 Taner \u00d6zarslan, Bloomberg HT’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, Dolar\/TL taraf\u0131nda bir m\u00fcddettir 6.75-85 band\u0131ndaki sabite yak\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 endi\u015felendirdi\u011fini, ancak o periyot i\u00e7erisinde kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla kurun dengelendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Bilhassa son bir ayd\u0131r ya\u015fanan faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 lisana getiren \u00d6zarslan, otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcratle artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta T\u00fcrkiye’nin Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck otomobil ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. T\u00fcketim e\u011filimi \u00fczerine \u00f6rneklendirmede bulunan \u00d6zarslan, \u201c500 bin lira pahas\u0131ndaki bir otomobil i\u00e7in 10 bin liral\u0131k pe\u015finatla o varl\u0131\u011fa sahip olunmas\u0131 isteniyor, ama \u00fclkeden 500 bin liral\u0131k bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Bu da \u00fclkeye cari a\u00e7\u0131k olarak geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Bu sebeple muhtemelen Temmuz ay\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

“Merkez Bankas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli acil bir nakd\u00ee s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmeli”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6b\u00fcr taraftan, \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gitgide azalan d\u00f6viz rezervlerini g\u00f6ren yabanc\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir durum a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u201d diyen \u00d6zarslan, faizin ger\u00e7ek manada belli bir ola\u011fana ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ne yerli ne de yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n TL\u2019ye olan ilgisinin artmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bu y\u00fczden Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli acil bir mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Taner \u00d6zarslan, 2018 ba\u015f\u0131nda 3,50\u2019lerde seyreden Dolar\/TL kurunun 5 d\u00fczeylerine kadar ilerledi\u011fini ve bu periyotta Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 geciktirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in sonraki art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tutmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u015eu anda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken TL\u2019yi korumak ve kalkan olu\u015fturmak\u201d diyen \u00d6zarslan, TL\u2019yi koruyabilecek faiz band\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fczde 14-15 d\u00fczeylerinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT\u2019de Ak\u0131ll\u0131 Para program\u0131na konuk olan Ko\u00e7 \u00dcniversitesi ve Bilim Akademisi \u00dcyesi, Prof. Dr. Kamil Y\u0131lmaz, pandemi s\u00fcrecinde d\u00f6vizde ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fi k\u0131ymetlendirdi. \u00dclke olarak yaln\u0131zca cari a\u00e7\u0131k probleminin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Prof. Dr. Y\u0131lmaz, finans kanal\u0131ndan da \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son 20 y\u0131ld\u0131r cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n sermaye giri\u015fleriyle finanse edildi\u011fini aktaran Y\u0131lmaz, bu uygulaman\u0131n uzun vadede tercih edilen bir sistem olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yap\u0131sal problemlere sebep oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Hem kuru, hem de faizi birebir anda denetim etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Y\u0131lmaz’a nazaran, son devirde d\u00f6viz kurunda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir ikaz oldu\u011funu ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde faiz siyasetini devreye sokmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekli oldu\u011funu kelamlar\u0131na ekledi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de hala g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kurumsal yap\u0131 oldu\u011funu lisana getiren Y\u0131lmaz, yanl\u0131\u015fs\u0131z siyasetler uygulayarak ya\u015fan\u0131lan ekonomik meselelerin \u00e7\u00f6zebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

“Kurda istikrar i\u00e7in offshore piyasalarda likidite tekrar azalt\u0131labilir”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dolar\/TL\u2019nin g\u00fcn i\u00e7erisindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini BloombegHT.com\u2019a k\u0131ymetlendiren Monex Europe FX Piyasalar\u0131 Analisti Simon Harvey \u201cEkonomik ve finansal fakt\u00f6rler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Dolar\/TL\u2019nin piyasa \u015fartlar\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc 7.00 d\u00fczeylerini ge\u00e7mesi esasen bekleniyordu. Bug\u00fcn de o g\u00fcne denk geldik\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Pandeminin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana rezervlerin Dolar\/TL d\u00fczeyini 7.00\u2019nin alt\u0131nda<\/b> tutmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ve offshore likidite \u00e7izgileriyle sermaye piyasalar\u0131na getirilen k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 itimad\u0131n\u0131 zedeledi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Harvey, \u201cT\u00fcm bu tedbirler d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f hareketlerini k\u0131s\u0131tlamak i\u00e7in getirildi, ama bu tedbirler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n itimad\u0131n\u0131 de zedeledi\u201d diye ekledi.<\/p>\n

Yak\u0131n vakitte spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa durumlar\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in tekrardan sermaye denetimleri kullan\u0131labilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7eken Harvey, \u201cKuru istikrara kavu\u015fturabilmek i\u00e7in offshore piyasalarda likiditenin tekrardan azalt\u0131labilece\u011fini\u201d beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u201cUzun periyotta ise tek bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u201d oldu\u011funu belirten Harvey, bunun da faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n tekrardan y\u00fckselmesinin gereklili\u011fi oldu\u011funu kaydetti. Son olarak, 2018\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f ile bug\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran Harvey, \u201cE\u011fer 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 referans al\u0131n\u0131rsa, T\u00fcrkiye iktisad\u0131 TL\u2019yi faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla savunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 hissedecektir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

“TCMB d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 olmadan TL’nin kay\u0131plar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in rezervleri gere\u011fince s\u00fcratli yenileyemeyebilir”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rabobank Geli\u015fen Piyasalar K\u0131demli FX Stratejisti Piotr Matys ise payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir notta dolar\/TL\u2019deki \u00fcst tarafl\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal y\u00fcksek enflasyon, halihaz\u0131rdaki geni\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kredi kullan\u0131lmas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

\u201cMerkez bankas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli swaplar\u0131 kullanarak ticari bankalardan bor\u00e7lanabilir\u201d diyen Matys, lokal bankalar\u0131n k\u0131sa periyotta merkez bankas\u0131na verebilecek 204 milyar dolar yurt i\u00e7i yerle\u015fik dolar mevduatlar\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Bankalara olan inanc\u0131n gelecek aylar, hatta haftalar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok kritik bir \u00f6ge oldu\u011funu belirten Matys, bankalardan dolar mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ekilmemesi i\u00e7in bu itimad\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131n gereklili\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n

Son olarak ise Matys \u201cTCMB bu d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 olmadan TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131ymetli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131ymet kaybetmesine m\u00fcdahale etmek i\u00e7in rezervleri gere\u011fince s\u00fcratli yenileyemeyebilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Zeynep Bayar & Erol Oytun Ercan BloombergHT.com Edit\u00f6rleri<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sparta & Co Kurucu Orta\u011f\u0131 Taner \u00d6zarslan, Bloomberg HT’ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, Dolar\/TL taraf\u0131nda bir m\u00fcddettir 6.75-85 band\u0131ndaki sabite …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[374,375,149,82,278],"class_list":["post-1210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-bankasi","tag-doviz","tag-faiz","tag-oldugunu","tag-piyasa"],"yoast_head":"\n