Winslow, T\u00fcrkiye iktisad\u0131n\u0131n 2021 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015funun beklentilerine ait sorular\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Winslow, \u201cKovid-19 a\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 itimad\u0131 desteklerken, k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, Avrupa\u2019da toparlanman\u0131n ivmelenmesiyle, bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrat kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye iktisad\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,5 d\u00fczeyinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrk iktisad\u0131n\u0131n 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,2 d\u00fczeyinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi iddias\u0131nda bulunan Fitch Ratings Y\u00f6neticisi Winslow, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ait b\u00fcy\u00fcme iddialar\u0131n\u0131n 19 \u015eubat tarihinde \u00fclke not ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ait k\u0131ymetlendirme kapsam\u0131nda ve mart ay\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanacak olan \u201cK\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u201d raporu \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yine de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

– T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131 bekleniyor<\/p>\n

Winslow, \u201cReel efektif kur, ki paha kayb\u0131 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 18 d\u00fczeyindeydi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplamda ihracattaki rekabeti son y\u0131llarda yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Turizmin toparlanmas\u0131, ihracatta talebin artmas\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vakitte yap\u0131lan siyaset s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci 11 ay\u0131nda GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 5,2\u2019si d\u00fczeyinde olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki devirde azalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,5, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019e gerilemesini bekliyoruz.\u201d Tabirlerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Winslow konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\u201cYeni Merkez Bankas\u0131 Lideri idaresindeki k\u0131smen daha Ortodoks siyasetler \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 cesaretlendirebilir. Bu \u00f6geler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n\u0131n dengelenmesini desteklerken, biz \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131na k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde olan D\u00f6viz rezervlerinde yak\u0131n vadede besbelli bir art\u0131\u015f beklemiyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n

– TCMB’nin para siyasetleri<\/p>\n

TCMB\u2019nin para siyasetlerini da k\u0131ymetlendiren Winslow, \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fi art\u0131ran tek fonlama oran\u0131 kullanmak konusundaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, mali siyaset kredibilitesini art\u0131rmak taraf\u0131nda bir ad\u0131m. Ama bunu yine in\u015fa etmek vakit alacakt\u0131r.\u201d tabirlerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Winslow, Fitch\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonun 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 10,5, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda ise y\u00fczde 9,5 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fini belirtirken uygulanan siyaset faizinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 13, gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 12 olmas\u0131 durumunda, bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,5 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ek faize denk gelmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n

Winslow, \u201cYaz periyodunda kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki kredileri de dahil olmak \u00fczere verilen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc siyaset dayanaklar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019n\u0131n (GSYH) artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flarken, te\u015fvikler cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rarak k\u0131smen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131.\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

– Not ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc etkileyebilecek \u00f6geler<\/p>\n

Gelecek periyotta T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notu ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olumlu istikamette etkileyebilecek \u00f6gelere da de\u011finen Winslow, \u201c\u0130lerleyen periyotta enflasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, mali siyaset kredibilitesini yine in\u015fa edilmesi m\u00fcspet reyting hareketini etkileyebilecek birtak\u0131m kilit \u00f6geler ortas\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Ya da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi konusunda itimad\u0131n artmas\u0131, yerli tasarruflar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, dolarizasyonun azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanmaya daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00fczere \u00f6geler.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan Winslow, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilerleyen devirde ani d\u0131\u015f finansman riskleri m\u00fcsabakas\u0131n\u0131n, d\u0131\u015f finansman dengesizlerinin art\u0131racak bi\u00e7imde siyaset geni\u015flemesine gitmesinin, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyecek boyutlarda olmas\u0131n\u0131n, bankalar\u0131n ve \u015firketlerin d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evirmekte zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na itimad\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ve dolarizasyonun artmas\u0131n\u0131n kredi notunun potansiyel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine neden olabilecek \u00f6geler ortas\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

AA <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Winslow, T\u00fcrkiye iktisad\u0131n\u0131n 2021 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015funun beklentilerine ait sorular\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131. Winslow, \u201cKovid …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20532,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[2156,463,2210],"class_list":["post-20531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-2021-yili","tag-buyume","tag-unsurlar"],"yoast_head":"\n