Barclays, yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporunda, enflasyonun Ekim ay\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 17 civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz indirmekte zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun \u015fimdi zirve noktas\u0131 ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Barclays, gelecek aylardaki dezenflasyonist baz tesirine kar\u015f\u0131n hala tam olarak olumlu bir e\u011filimin sinyallerini g\u00f6remediklerini ve ekim ay\u0131na kadar enflasyonun y\u00fczde 17’nin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu beklentiler dahilinde 2021\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar faiz indirimi beklemediklerini vurgulayan Barclays Analisti Ercan Erg\u00fczel, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 350 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6z etti.<\/p>\n
ING Bank ise yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonlar\u0131na hakikat faiz indirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u00fcst istikametli e\u011filim, TL\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, salg\u0131ndaki arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve talep \u015fartlar\u0131yla birlikte enflasyon dinamiklerinin hala g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu vurgulayan ING Bank, Para Siyaseti Konseyi metninden ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n Lider \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu\u2019nun son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n uzun vadede hala g\u00fcvercin bir sinyal verdi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ING Bank, \u015fiddetli enflasyon \u015fartlar\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan sermaye giri\u015fi ve kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde TCMB\u2019nin siyaset ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda aha dikkatli olaca\u011f\u0131na de\u011finerek, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda faizlerin sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini ve birinci faiz indiriminin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonuna yanl\u0131\u015fs\u0131z gelmesini beklediklerini s\u00f6z etti.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank Orta Do\u011fu ve Do\u011fu Avrupa Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Christian Wietoska, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131ndan itibaren faiz indirmesini beklediklerini ve y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme iddialar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 istikametli revize ettiklerini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg HT\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede y\u00fczde 15\u2019e yak\u0131n bir y\u0131lsonu enflasyonu beklediklerini belirten Wietoska, \u201cEnflasyon k\u0131sa vadede artmaya devam edecek, baz tesirleri ve D\u00f6viz \u015fokunun da bunda hissesi olacakt\u0131r. Nisan\u2019da enflasyonun y\u00fczde 17\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz ancak bunun tepe olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz ve enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam edece\u011fini varsay\u0131m ediyoruz\u201d demi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Hala \u00e7ok fazla belirsizli\u011fin oldu\u011funu ve d\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131n kuvvetli kalmaya devam etti\u011fini belirten Wietoska, TL\u2019deki y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n enflasyonu k\u0131sa vadede etkileyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley’den Merkez Bankas\u0131 kestirimi<\/b><\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley ekonomistleri enflasyonun yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca y\u00fczde 19 d\u00fczeyinde seyretmesini, faizlerin indirilmesi istikametindeki politik bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczere ekonomik fakt\u00f6rler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizleri sabit tutmaya devam etmesini beklediklerini belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley’in ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporunda \u201cDi\u011fer alternatifler neler olabilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, zarur\u00ee kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n indirilmesi, ama\u00e7l\u0131 krediler ya da makro ihtiyati birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemlerin gev\u015fetilmesi \u00fczere ad\u0131mlarla mali \u015fartlar gev\u015fetilebilir\u201d s\u00f6zleri kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n ekonomistleri, iktisad\u0131n Kovid-19 \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeylerde olmas\u0131 ve 2018 \u00f6ncesi trende ger\u00e7ek gidiyor olmas\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ek bir nakd\u00ee takviyenin enflasyonun daha da y\u00fckselmesine ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n endi\u015felenmesine neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Barclays, yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporunda, enflasyonun Ekim ay\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 17 civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32452,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[560,74,1716,149,563],"class_list":["post-32451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-bank","tag-enflasyon","tag-enflasyonun","tag-faiz","tag-merkez-bankasi"],"yoast_head":"\n
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