Milletleraras\u0131 G\u00fc\u00e7 Ajans\u0131’n\u0131n (UEA) 4 farkl\u0131 senaryo \u00fczerinden g\u00fc\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek 10 y\u0131l\u0131na odaklanan “D\u00fcnya G\u00fc\u00e7 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2020” raporuna nazaran, yeni tip koronavir\u00fcs (Kovid-19) salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 talebi bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

Bu kapsamda, petrol talebi y\u00fczde 8 azal\u0131\u015fla g\u00fcnl\u00fck 100 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda<\/b> kalacak. K\u00f6m\u00fcr talebi, bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 7, do\u011fal gaz talebi y\u00fczde 3 ve global elektrik talebi y\u00fczde 2 gerileyecek.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada g\u00fc\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 18 azal\u0131rken, yava\u015flayan ekonomik aktiviteyle global karbon emisyonlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 7 azalacak.<\/p>\n

Kovid-19’un gelecek y\u0131l denetim alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda, global g\u00fc\u00e7 talebinin 2023’\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda Kovid-19 \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine geri d\u00f6nmesi beklenirken, salg\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7 talebindeki toparlanma 2025’i bulacak.<\/p>\n

Salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde 2019-2030 periyodu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 12 artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7 talebinde y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

Talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki yava\u015flama petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi periyoda nazaran d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olurken, yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki azalma g\u00fc\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131ndaki volatilite riskini art\u0131racak.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcne\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel kayna\u011f\u0131 olacak<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6b\u00fcr g\u00fc\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131ndan \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, yenilenebilir g\u00fc\u00e7ten elektrik \u00fcretimi bu y\u0131l tek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren alan olacak.<\/p>\n

Destekleyici siyasetler ve teknolojideki ilerlemelerle giderek ucuzlayan yenilenebilir kaynaklar, g\u00fc\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131nda daha fazla rol oynayacak.<\/p>\n

Global elektrik talebi 2030’a kadar y\u00fczde 20 artarken, bu talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 80’ini yenilenebilir g\u00fc\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek.<\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede, yeni k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011fal gaz santrali yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan daha ucuz olan ve \u015fimdiye kadarki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli elektrik kayna\u011f\u0131 haline gelen g\u00fcne\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc ise bu alandaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin merkezinde yer alacak.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcne\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc kapasitesi 2030’a kadar y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 280 gigavat art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek ve ortalama y\u00fczde 12 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.<\/p>\n

Elektri\u011fin yar\u0131s\u0131 yenilenebilirden gelecek<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu kapsamda, yenilenebilir g\u00fc\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131 gelecek 10 y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyadaki toplam elektrik talebinin y\u00fczde 50’sini kar\u015f\u0131layacak. Hidroelektrik, g\u00fc\u00e7 talebinin kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck hissesi al\u0131rken, g\u00fcne\u015f en fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen kaynak olacak. R\u00fczgar ve deniz \u00fcst\u00fc (offshore) r\u00fczgar santralleri ise bu kayna\u011f\u0131 takip edecek.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131ndan \u00fcretilen g\u00fcc\u00fcn sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u015febekeye ba\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in elektrik \u015febekelerinde de\u011ferli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Global emisyonlar, 2008-2009 ekonomik krizi sonras\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan daha yava\u015f art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ecek, fakat \u00fclkelerin salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme planlar\u0131n\u0131 pak g\u00fc\u00e7 alan\u0131nda yapmas\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131n gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131ymetli rol oynayacak.<\/p>\n

K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn global g\u00fc\u00e7 portf\u00f6y\u00fcndeki hissesi, Sanayi \u0130htilali’nden sonra birinci kere 2040’ta y\u00fczde 20’nin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fecek. Do\u011fal gaz talebi ise Asya b\u00f6lgesi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n

Petrol, salg\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu ekonomik belirsizliklere kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve 2019’daki pik d\u00fczeyine geri d\u00f6nemeyecek. Global petrol talebi 2030’da 2019’a nazaran y\u00fczde 12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n

“Petrol talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde sona erecek”<\/strong><\/p>\n

UEA Lideri Fatih Birol, rapora ait yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, g\u00fcne\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnya elektrik piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n “yeni kral\u0131” olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn siyasetlerine nazaran g\u00fcne\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc kurulumlar\u0131nda 2022 sonras\u0131nda her y\u0131l yeni rekorlar k\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fini belirten Birol, “\u00dclkeler, pak g\u00fc\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 biraz daha h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rlarsa, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgarda \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kapasite b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine \u015fahit olabiliriz ki bu durum iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle gayret i\u00e7in hayli c\u00fcret verici.” s\u00f6zlerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l, salg\u0131n kapsam\u0131nda uygulanan \u00f6nlemler sonras\u0131nda global emisyonlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc an\u0131msatan Birol, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

“Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, d\u00fcnya hala emisyonlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde azaltmaktan epey uzak. \u0130ktisatta yava\u015flama emisyonlar\u0131 s\u00fcreksiz olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc lakin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ‘d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emisyon stratejisi’ de\u011fil. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme lakin d\u00fcnyadaki en k\u0131r\u0131lgan n\u00fcfuslar\u0131 daha da fakirle\u015ftirecek bir strateji. Enerjiyi \u00fcretme ve t\u00fcketme \u015feklimizdeki yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler lakin emisyonlar\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine sokabilir.”<\/p>\n

Birol, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin pak g\u00fc\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmak ve iklim maksatlar\u0131na ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in sorumlulu\u011fu oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Petrol talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelecek 10 y\u0131lda sona erecek ancak h\u00fck\u00fcmet siyasetlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmazsa talebin s\u00fcratli bir formda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn siyasetlerine bakarsak, global bir ekonomik toparlanma petrol talebini yine Kovid-19 \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeylerine d\u00f6nd\u00fcrebilir.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

AA<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Milletleraras\u0131 G\u00fc\u00e7 Ajans\u0131’n\u0131n (UEA) 4 farkl\u0131 senaryo \u00fczerinden g\u00fc\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek 10 y\u0131l\u0131na odaklanan “D\u00fcnya G\u00fc\u00e7 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2020” raporuna …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9779,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[463,520,188,318,957],"class_list":["post-9778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-piyasalar","tag-buyume","tag-ekonomik","tag-enerji","tag-kuresel","tag-talebi"],"yoast_head":"\n